10 Feb The Hidden Force Behind PSU Stock Surge
Understanding the Big Factor Behind The Rally in PSU Stocks
In the fast-paced world of stock trading, certain factors can significantly influence market dynamics, sometimes even overshadowing traditional measures of value.
One such factor, often overlooked by retail investors, is the concept of “free float” – a critical element in understanding the recent surge in Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) stocks on Dalal Street.
Also Read: The Paytm Saga: What Went Wrong?
The Hidden Force Behind PSU Stock Surge
Picture this: a company valued at a staggering Rs 28,000 crore, yet with a mere 1% of its shares available for trading in the open market, equivalent to just Rs 280 crore. This seemingly incongruous scenario underscores the impact of low free float, where limited supply meets increasing demand, leading to a rapid escalation in stock prices.
The rally in PSU stocks isn’t solely attributed to improving fundamentals or heightened investor sentiment; rather, it’s intricately linked to the phenomenon of low free float.
In at least 10 PSUs, the government, as the promoter, owns over 90% of the shares. Nine of these have seen multi-bagger growth in the past year.
Among the PSU giants, KIOCL stands out with a minuscule free float of 0.97%, predominantly owned by the Indian government. In just one year, its stock surged by an astonishing 154%, underscoring the disproportionate influence of limited supply on market dynamics.
Realted Read: PSU Stocks Rally: What’s Fueling the Surge?
Exploring the Free Float Phenomenon:
Understanding the significance of free float unveils the underlying dynamics of the market. With a substantial portion of shares held by the government, even marginal fluctuations in buying or selling activity can have a profound impact on stock prices.
For instance, in the case of Punjab & Sind Bank, where government ownership stands at 98.25%, the available public float represents only a fraction of its total market capitalization, driving its shares to surge by 154% within a year.
Regulatory Landscape and Investor Perception:
While SEBI mandates a minimum public shareholding of 25%, exemptions are often granted, further exacerbating the concentration of ownership in PSU stocks. The recent exemption granted to LIC, with 96.5% government ownership, underscores the regulatory nuances shaping market dynamics. This exemption has contributed to an 81% surge in LIC’s stock price, signaling the profound impact of regulatory decisions on investor sentiment.
Also Read: “From Crisis to Confidence: YES Bank’s Journey to Stability”
Is the surge in PSU stocks solely attributed to low free float?
Not entirely. While low free float is a significant factor, it’s not the sole driver of the rally. These stocks haven’t been investor favorites for years solely due to low float. Other factors, including positive investor sentiment and improving fundamentals, play pivotal roles in their resurgence.
The BSE PSU index’s remarkable doubling in the past year, with a robust 28% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over five years, underscores the broader market dynamics at play.
DSP Mutual Fund’s cautious approach towards increasing exposure to PSUs reflects a sentiment shift driven by recent improvements in operating performance. The data indicates a turnaround in PSU operating performance, leading to increased investor confidence.
Moreover, the divergence between stock performance and underlying profit growth for PSUs suggests a significant re-rating driven by factors beyond mere profitability metrics.
However, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities sound a note of caution amidst the euphoria. They warn of the market’s myopic focus on short-term gains, overlooking medium-term profitability risks, business model challenges, and disruption risks.
This sentiment is particularly pronounced in capital goods PSU, where assumptions about sustained order inflows and perpetually elevated margins may not hold true.
The multi-faceted role of the government as buyer, owner, and regulator adds another layer of uncertainty to the outlook for PSU earnings and returns.
In summary, while low float can propel quick stock price rises, investors must be mindful of the equally swift downside risks. A holistic understanding of market dynamics, including sentiment shifts, fundamental improvements, and regulatory factors, is essential for navigating the complexities of the PSU stock rally.
Please note that we are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts. All the views shared in this article and all the content shared on aceink.com are only for learning and educational purposes. Any part of the article or any information on Aceink.com should not be interpreted or considered as investment advice. None of the opinions, views, or content posted on Aceink.com constitutes investment advice, as we are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts.
DISCLAIMER:
We are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts. All the views shared in this article and all the content shared on aceink.com are only for learning and educational purposes. Any part of the article or any information on Aceink.com should not be interpreted or considered as investment advice. None of the opinions, views, or content posted on Aceink.com constitutes investment advice, as we are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts.
Aceink.com or any person associated with this website accepts no liability or responsibility for any direct, indirect, implied, or any other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly due to any action taken based on the information provided on this website. Please conduct your own research, and we suggest seeking investment advice only from a SEBI-registered investment advisor.
The views expressed by investment experts, broking houses, news and media houses, rating agencies, etc., are their own and not those of Aceink.com or its management. Aceink.com advises users to consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any decisions.
No Comments