What Experts Are Saying: A Deep Dive into Banks
The Nifty Bank index, representing major banking stocks in India, achieved a historic milestone by reaching a record high after 91 trading sessions. Surpassing its previous peak of 46,369 set on July 21, this achievement was notably driven by the stellar performance of key players in the sector.
Contributors to the Rally:
- HDFC Bank’s Dominance: Since October 26, 2023, HDFC Bank emerged as a pivotal force, contributing over 900 points and 7% to the Nifty Bank’s resurgence. The bank showcased a remarkable turnaround, boosting the entire banking index.
- ICICI Bank’s Growth: ICICI Bank also played a significant role in the rally, experiencing a 7% rise and contributing nearly 750 points during the mentioned period.
Expert Commentary and Outlook:
- Bullish Sentiments: Market experts have been bullish on the financial sector, citing attractive valuations. Both private and public sector banks, with a particular emphasis on PSU banks, have garnered favor among investors.
- Gautam Duggad’s Perspective: Gautam Duggad of Motilal Oswal Financial Services highlighted the significant overweight position in financials due to their compelling valuations. The focus extends to both private and PSU banks, along with select non-lending financials and lending NBFCs.
- Madhusudan Kela’s Insights: Madhusudan Kela of MK Ventures emphasized the compelling risk-reward proposition in the financial space. Public sector banks, combined with well-performing private sector banks, form a strategic mix, presenting a compelling investment opportunity.
- Pashupati Advani’s Observation: Pashupati Advani of @globalforay pointed out the notable turnaround of HDFC Bank, positioning it as a primary driver for the bank index’s upward trajectory. He emphasized HDFC Bank as a preferred choice, especially with its listing on the New York Stock Exchange.
CLSA’s Analysis:
- CLSA highlighted banks as the biggest overweight in its India focus portfolio, including key players like HDFC Bank Ltd, ICICI Bank Ltd, Axis Bank Ltd, and IndusInd Bank.
- Contrary to popular perception, CLSA noted that the underperformance of financials is not a consistent trend. While certain lending NBFCs lag, vehicle and power finance stocks have performed well. The banking sector showcases a diverse trend, with small-cap banks outperforming their benchmarks.
- PSU bank indices have outperformed private bank indices by 12.3 percentage points in 2023.
- Banks are currently trading below their long-term average valuations, making them relatively attractive compared to historical levels.
- CLSA observed a divergent performance among banks, increasing the relative valuation attractiveness of larger banks in the Nifty.
- The stable return on equity profile and steady earnings growth for large-cap Nifty banks position them favorably within the banking sector.
The financial sector’s recent rally, led by key players like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, underscores renewed investor confidence and positive sentiment toward banking stocks.
Outlook: CLSA’s analysis suggests that the relative attractiveness of larger banks within the Nifty is likely to be further solidified, emphasizing a more stable return on equity profile and steady earnings growth and HDFC Bank is the prefferred choice among them.
Here are the highlights of the investor concall of HDFC Bank:
Merger and Integration:
- The merger underscored the bank’s adept execution capabilities.
- Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) build-up and incremental cash reserve ratio (CRR) influenced the balance sheet.
Asset Quality:
- The influence of HDFC Limited’s non-retail book on the bank’s gross NPA is expected to be minimal.
- The restructuring of the non-retail book is anticipated to incur no additional costs or losses.
Mortgage Business:
- Construction finance holds significance within the bank’s mortgage business.
- Steady growth is projected for the construction finance book.
- Retail mortgage loans and disbursals achieved record levels.
Distribution and Customer Reach:
- The bank expanded its distribution footprint through a branch increase.
- Payment acceptance points and rural business reach experienced expansion.
- New liability relationships were established, and card issuances surged in the quarter.
- A focus on cross-selling and refining the sales process remains a priority.
Financial Performance:
- Key metrics encompass deposit accretion, loan growth, and net interest margin (NIM).
- The bank maintained a robust return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE).
- Total other income reached INR 10,708 crores, with fees and commissions contributing 65%.
- Profit after tax for the quarter recorded a 50% increase over the previous year, totaling INR 15,976 crores.
Capital and Provisioning:
- Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) stood at 121%, factoring in the impact of ICRR.
- Capital adequacy ratio reached 19.5%, with CET1 at 17.3%.
- Gross NPA ratio was reported at 1.34%, with a net NPA ratio of 0.35%.
- Total provisions amounted to approximately INR 2,900 crores, reflecting a provision coverage ratio of 74%.
- The total annualized credit cost ratio for the quarter was 49 basis points.
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