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Jefferies’ Top 26 Ideas for Indian Markets


Why Jefferies is Bullish on These 26 Companies: A Comprehensive Analysis


In a recent market analysis, esteemed brokerage firm Jefferies provided valuable insights into India’s economic landscape. Emphasizing the significance of ongoing reforms, Jefferies highlighted their role in sustaining India’s status as the ‘Fastest growing large economy.’

Additionally, the brokerage noted the positive impact of robust trends in domestic investment flows, which have contributed to a reduction in market volatility.

Furthermore, Jefferies identified the current decadal low foreign ownership as a factor providing a cushion to valuations in the Indian market. Jefferies presented a compelling list of 26 top ‘Buy’ Ideas for the Indian Markets. These recommendations offer valuable insights into potential growth prospects and investment opportunities across various sectors.

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Axis Bank: Axis Bank stands out as one of Jefferies’ prime selections, backed by its strengthened franchise due to past investments. The bank is anticipated to achieve a notable 16-18% loan growth and enhance its deposit profile, maintaining a robust ROE of 18%. Integration with Citibank’s India retail platform shows promising progress, offering significant scope for synergies.

Jefferies forecasts a 17% CAGR in normalized profit over FY24-26 and an ROE of 18% in FY25. BUY with a PT of Rs. 1,380.

ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank emerges as a top choice in the Indian financial sector, poised for sustained growth, superior asset quality, and higher ROEs. With a strategic focus on deeper market penetration, especially in urban micro-markets, ICICI is positioned for a 14% CAGR in profit over FY24-26 and an ROE of 19% in FY25.

At CMP, its valuation appears justified considering the anticipated growth and improved asset quality.

State Bank of India (SBI): Jefferies favors SBI among PSU names, foreseeing healthy earnings growth driven by low credit costs. SBI’s robust deposit franchise and significant market share in retail and corporate lending support its potential for a 13% CAGR in loans over FY24-26. Despite margin compression affecting NII growth, profit growth is expected to remain strong at 16% CAGR.

Attractive valuations and favorable ROE support a BUY rating with a PT of Rs. 810.

ICICI Lombard: Upgraded by Jefferies, ICICI Lombard benefits from the General Insurance sector’s growth potential, with a projected 14% CAGR in premiums over FY24-26. As a market leader, ICICI Lombard is well-positioned to capitalize on sector growth, expecting a 17% CAGR in premiums and 16% operating profit growth.

Despite recent stock price performance, Jefferies remains bullish, rating the stock BUY with a PT of Rs. 1,730.

KFin Tech: Identified as an intriguing opportunity, KFin Tech rides the wave of financialization of savings in India, particularly in mutual funds. As a leading player in registrar & transfer agent services, KFin Tech is primed for high-growth opportunities, supported by new platforms and potential M&A ventures.

Jefferies anticipates a 20% CAGR in profit over FY24-26, endorsing a BUY with TP of Rs. 700.

Shriram Finance: Jefferies maintains a positive outlook on Shriram Finance, expecting robust AUM growth of 17% over FY24-26e, primarily driven by a positive CV outlook. Despite near-term margin pressure, Shriram Finance is projected to deliver a 17% EPS CAGR and 15% ROE over FY24-26e.

With a PT of Rs. 2,750, Shriram Finance presents an attractive investment opportunity.

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TVS Motor: TVS Motor has significantly expanded its market share across various segments from FY18 to 9MFY24, including scooters, motorcycles, and exports. Despite previously subdued margins, TVS has narrowed the gap with competitors, with an improved EBITDA margin reaching 11.2% in 3QFY24. The brokerage anticipates further margin improvement to 11.9-12.5% in FY25-26E, supported by volume recovery and strengthened pricing power.

Expectations include a robust 35% EPS CAGR over FY24-26E, with valuations reflecting strong earnings growth prospects.

Eicher Motors: Eicher Motors faced heightened competition in 2023 from new motorcycle launches by competitors. Despite this, the company has demonstrated strong operating performance. However, increased competitive risk has impacted its valuation, lagging behind the Nifty Auto Index since January 2023. Jefferies suggests that the risk to Eicher Motors’ market share has lessened, with favorable industry dynamics and export growth potential.

Expectations include an 18% rise in EBITDA and a 17% rise in EPS CAGRs over FY24-26E, with potential for multiple expansion as market share confidence grows.

Also Read: What Factors Could Trigger a 20% Fall in the Indian Market?


Coal India: Coal India’s volume growth trajectory has improved and is expected to continue amid India’s strong economic growth and increasing power consumption. Jefferies predicts dispatch volumes to rise by 8% YoY in FY24E and then at a 6% CAGR over FY24-26E. Improved volume growth, coupled with lower-than-expected costs, has significantly enhanced Coal India’s earnings outlook. The brokerage estimates an all-time-high EPS of Rs. 51 in FY24E.

Despite challenges like wage hikes and e-auction price falls, the stock offers a 5% dividend yield, and Jefferies expects net cash/share to rise over FY23-26E despite the high dividend.

Capital Goods and Logistics

L&T: L&T’s Engineering & Construction revenue and EBITDA have shown impressive growth rates. For FY23-26E, Jefferies anticipates core E&C EBITDA to rise at a 24% CAGR, supported by a comfortable order book and strong revenue visibility.

The brokerage believes L&T has the potential to surprise on execution and order flow expectations, with prudent capital allocation and improving ROE.

Thermax: Thermax is well-positioned to lead in clean water, clear air, and clean energy solutions in India. The company’s growth should be sustained by infrastructure spending, PLI-linked incentive capex, industrial capex, and housing recovery. Margin outlook is expected to sustain/improve, driven by lower commodity prices, supply chain improvements, and operating leverage.

Jefferies forecasts a 30% EPS CAGR in FY23-26E and a 19% ROE, which could drive upside from current levels.

NTPC: Jefferies predicts a significant rise in Power Capex CAGR for NTPC, estimating a 9x increase at 20% in FY23-26E compared to just 2.2% in FY10-20. With India transitioning into a capex-driven GDP growth phase, power intensity is expected to increase, benefiting NTPC as a major player in the sector. Over FY23-26E, the company’s consolidated non-fossil portfolio is projected to grow by 4.9x to 15 GW. Additionally, monetization plans, including stake sales/IPOs over two to three years, are expected to add further value.

Jefferies has a price target of Rs. 415 for NTPC, valuing the company at 2.3x consolidated PB FY26E, aligning with past upcycle averages.

JSE Energy: Jefferies anticipates three key developments for JSE Energy over the next 12-24 months:

  1. Improved visibility on renewable energy, with RE capacity projected to reach 81% by FY30E from 52% in FY23.
  2. Commissioning of 700 MW merchant capacity during peak power deficit periods.
  3. Progress on India’s first green hydrogen plants and energy storage battery unit. Despite not aggressively bidding in the tariff-based competitive bidding period for 2008-2012, JSWE has maintained a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio well below 1.5x and reasonable return ratios.

Jefferies forecasts a 33% EPS CAGR in FY24E-26E, with a price target of Rs. 600 for JSE Energy.


PI Industries: Jefferies notes that PI Industries’ portfolio of patented early-stage molecules is gaining market share, contrasting with peers experiencing revenue declines due to more genericized portfolios. Despite market concerns about the patent cliff in CY25 impacting 15% of volumes, Jefferies remains optimistic, citing that 85% of usage is in patented combinations extending beyond 2030.

The brokerage anticipates an increase in Pharma contribution to EBITDA in FY25-26E, driven by margin normalization.

Real Estate

Godrej Properties: Godrej Properties has demonstrated strong pre-sales performance, surpassing initial targets with pre-sales expected to reach ₹180 billion in FY24. Improvements in profitability stem from timely land acquisitions, increased stakes in projects, and a focus on profitability.

Jefferies predicts a re-rating in the stock due to consistent pre-sales performance and enhanced profitability.

Macrotech Developers: Lodha’s pre-sales have doubled over FY21-23, with management targeting 20% medium-term growth for FY24. Debt reduction and strong free cash flow generation contribute to a positive outlook. Management aims for a gearing target of <0.5x by Mar’24, achievable according to Jefferies.

With near-term triggers such as the completion of large infrastructure projects, the brokerage sees potential re-rating of land values.


Honasa Consumer: Unlike many other direct-to-consumer brands, Honasa Consumer is profitable, with an improving EBITDA margin of 7% in 9mFY24. Jefferies projects a sector-leading 28% revenue CAGR over FY23-26E, expecting growth to moderate in flagship brand Mamaearth.

However, new brands are anticipated to ramp up rapidly, accompanied by improved profitability, Jefferies rates Honasa as a BUY with a PT of Rs 590.

Zomato: Zomato achieved positive PAT in 1QFY24 ahead of guidance, driven by improving profitability in food delivery and quick commerce segments. With significant cash reserves generating yield and positive cash flow in recent quarters, Jefferies expects a limited cash drawdown going forward.

Premium valuations are justified by strong growth and improving profitability, with a PT of Rs 205.

Pharma and Healthcare

Piramal Pharma: Piramal Pharma faced challenges in FY22 and FY23 due to weak order flow for its CDMO business. However, Jefferies sees a recovery phase underway with recent order wins in generics and increasing demand for discovery services. The brokerage anticipates consistent double-digit growth in CDMO, leading to a revenue CAGR of 12% over FY24-26E and a significant rise in EBITDA by FY25.

With improved order visibility and a higher order book, Jefferies views PPL as an attractive turnaround story.

Apollo Hospitals: Apollo aims to increase occupancy to 70% in the hospitals’ division, which, coupled with declining investments and discounting on the digital platform, is expected to drive high-teens growth in FY25. Jefferies forecasts a 24% EBITDA CAGR during FY24-26E, considering these factors.

With Apollo trading at a discount to Max for their hospital divisions, Jefferies sets a PT of Rs 7,500, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects.


UltraTech Cement: As a key beneficiary of India’s infra-capex theme, UltraTech Cement is expected to maintain its outperformance in capacity/volume growth. With a focus on efficiency improvement and green energy sources, UltraTech is positioned for continued growth.

Jefferies values the stock at 17x FY26 consolidated EV/EBITDA, setting a PT of Rs 11,560 and recommending a BUY based on its improving ROE/ROCE outlook and market share growth.

Ambuja Cement: Ambuja Cement, post-ownership change, is demonstrating renewed strength with ambitious targets for capacity expansion and efficiency improvement. Jefferies projects an industry-leading 23% EBITDA CAGR for FY23-FY26E and values the stock at 17x FY26E consolidated EBITDA, setting a PT of Rs 660.

A BUY recommendation is provided, given its anticipated operating/profitability outperformance.


Bharti Airtel: Jefferies highlights the potential for tariff increases in India, considering the low ARPU/per capita GDP ratio compared to similar countries. Bharti Airtel’s strong traction in 4G/Postpaid subscribers and ongoing network investments position it for market share gains.

With expectations of revenue and EBITDA growth, along with improving FCF generation and balance sheet deleveraging, Jefferies rates it as a BUY with a PT of Rs 1,300.

Also Read: Why EV Battery Makers Promise Growth in 2024”

Kajaria Ceramics: Jefferies considers Kajaria Ceramics (KJC) a strong contender in India’s housing revival. As the market leader in tiles, KJC is poised to gain market share from the unbranded segment and sustain pricing power through Morbi exports.

With anticipated sales/PAT CAGR of +13% /+26% over FY23-26E, driven by various factors including housing revival and margin optimization, Jefferies maintains a Buy rating on KJC with a PT of Rs 1,630.

Amber Enterprises: Rated as Buy with a PT of Rs 4,385, Amber Enterprises is expected to benefit from lower RAC penetration in India compared to the global average.

With a leadership position in AC outsourcing and a diversified customer base, Amber’s foray into components and PLI incentives could drive sales/PAT CAGR of +16%/40% over FY23-26E, according to Jefferies.

Supreme Industries: Seen as a comprehensive play on the revival in housing, capex, infra, and agri demand, Supreme Industries (SI) boasts a diversified product mix and widespread reach. With robust volume growth and a focus on value-added sales (VAS), SI is positioned for continued success.

Jefferies forecasts a +17% volume growth CAGR over FY23-26, supporting its Buy rating with a PT of Rs 5,650 as a high-conviction SMID pick.

Please note that we are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts. All the views shared in this article and all the content shared on aceink.com are only for learning and educational purposes. Any part of the article or any information on Aceink.com should not be interpreted or considered as investment advice. None of the opinions, views, or content posted on Aceink.com constitutes investment advice, as we are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts.


We are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts. All the views shared in this article and all the content shared on aceink.com are only for learning and educational purposes. Any part of the article or any information on Aceink.com should not be interpreted or considered as investment advice. None of the opinions, views, or content posted on Aceink.com constitutes investment advice, as we are not SEBI-registered advisors or analysts.

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